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 Some Powers of the Immutables [12:27m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (10)

As DrRich helpfully pointed out in his last post, our new healthcare law (Section 3403) creates a new and apparently immutable entity called the “Independent Medicare Advisory Board,” whose job is “to reduce the per capita rate of growth in Medicare spending.” This, in fact, is the right goal. For it is the rate of growth in healthcare spending (and not the absolute amount being spent) that threatens us with societal disintegration within the next couple of decades.

But it is mathematically impossible to attribute this explosive growth rate in healthcare spending to waste and inefficiency. Most of that growth must necessarily be caused by healthcare expenditures that are actually producing some benefit (though, to be sure, some of that benefit is marginal). And this means that in order to reduce the rate of growth, we have to ration healthcare (i.e., to withhold at least some beneficial healthcare from at least some of the people who would benefit from it).

We can only conclude that, in order for the new IMAB to do its designated job, it must ration healthcare. But since the same law that creates the IMAB also stipulates that it must not ration care, the IMAB must necessarily perform that unavoidable rationing covertly. This is a very difficult job, as demonstrated by the fact that the private health insurers (even with the wonderful incentive of profits, and with the full support of Congress) have utterly failed to develop a sustainable business model based on the covert rationing of healthcare.

But still, this is the job that our leaders have now assigned to the IMAB. And so, DrRich has attempted to tease out some of the options which remain available to the Immutables as they embark on their difficult but necessary assignment of covertly rationing our healthcare. (As DrRich will shortly explain, the legal nomenclature for the IMAB is actually a bit confusing and misleading. So for clarity’s sake, DrRich will hereafter refer to this Board as the Immutables.)

DrRich has found, so far, at least three powers which our new healthcare law grants to the Immutables, that will give them at least a fighting chance at success.

1. The most fruitful pathway to covert rationing remains open to them.

The new healthcare law specifically does not allow the Immutables “to ration health care, raise revenues or Medicare beneficiary premiums. . ., increase Medicare beneficiary cost-sharing (including deductibles, coinsurance, and copayments), or otherwise restrict benefits or modify eligibility criteria.” While these prohibitions might appear on the surface to greatly limit the options available to the Immutables, in fact all this language does is to formalize their directive to ration covertly instead of openly. Since covert rationing has long been our society’s policy regarding healthcare, these prohibitions actually change nothing.

What is left to the Immutables, of course, is the most time-honored pathway to covert rationing – coercing the healthcare providers to place the needs of the payers ahead of the needs of their patients. DrRich has posted innumerable examples over the years showing how payers do this. He is confident that the Immutables will employ all the methodologies which have been devised to date for coercing providers, and (with the awful power of the sovereign authority behind them) they will invent some really useful new ones.

2. The Immutables have been granted near-dictatorial authority.

On the surface, one might think of the Immutables as a sort of Mr. Rogers of healthcare – a mild-mannered, friendly, always-helpful, but ultimately undemanding agent for good. One might get this impression by reading the first few paragraphs of Section 3403, which paint the new entity as an “advisory” board, whose main task is to develop “proposals” and “advisory reports,” and these “proposals” and “advisory reports” would solely consist of various “recommendations,” that ought to be “considered” for the purpose of cost reduction.

Indeed, one might get the impression that the main difference between the Immutables and this blog is that the former is appointed by the President, and has a travel budget.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Once the Chief Actuary of CMS determines that the projected per capita growth rate for Medicare exceeds the target growth rate, the Immutables are required to submit a “proposal” which will cut costs sufficiently to bring the growth rate back in line. Then, the Secretary of HHS is required to implement that “proposal” in its entirety, unless Congress acts to block implementation. However, Congress is forbidden from taking any action “that would repeal or otherwise change the recommendations of the Board,” unless it replaces those “recommendations” with its own legislation that would cut Medicare spending to the same target level.

For all practical purposes, then, the cost-cutting “recommendations” which the Immutables would “propose” for “consideration” will be implemented nearly automatically, with the full authority of the Federal government.

And, for all practical purposes, the Immutables will become a new agency of the executive branch, with near-dictatorial authority to cut Medicare spending as it sees fit.

3. The Immutables have been granted the authority to limit private health-care expenditures.

Those who paid attention to the process that brought us our new and transformational healthcare system might recall that the Senate bill, which ultimately became law of the land, was never designed to be actually implemented. It was designed solely to assure 60 votes in the Senate, after which the Joint Conference with the House was to meld the House Bill and the Senate Bill into a workable law.

As part of the negotiations to gain those original 60 votes in the Senate, five or six Democrat Senators cobbled together a list of amendments to the original Senate Bill – the so-called Manager’s Amendments. It is in the Manager’s Amendments that one can find such famous niceties as the bribes paid to Nebraska. But the Manager’s Amendments (which, contrary to the expectations of the actual Managers, are now part of our new healthcare law) contained lots of other stuff as well.

One of the more interesting parts of the Manager’s Amendments (Section 10320) is entitled, “Expansion Of The Scope Of, And Additional Improvements To, The Independent Medicare Advisory Board.”

Section 10320 (which can be found way down on page 2210 of the new law) grants the Immutables (beginning in 2015) the authority to limit all healthcare expenditures, and not just expenditures by Medicare or government-run programs.

To emphasize this expanded authority, Section 10320 changes the name of the Immutables from the Independent Medicare Advisory Board to the Independent Payment Advisory Board. It directs the Immutables (and now readers will understand why DrRich has resorted to this more descriptive name), at least every two years, to “submit to Congress and the President recommendations to slow the growth in national health expenditures” for private (non-Federal) healthcare programs. Furthermore, it allows that these “recommendations” may be implemented by the Secretary of HHS or other Federal agencies administratively.

Ostensibly, the justification for this expansion of the Immutables’ authority is that controlling private healthcare expenditures will directly impact Medicare, since the “target” Medicare growth rate which the Immutables are charged with achieving will be determined by overall healthcare expenditures. More practically, if Medicare patients (who are subjected to arbitrary cost-cutting measures) see their younger counterparts enjoying less restricted healthcare, the old farts are likely to become rowdy. But DrRich suspects there was an even stronger reason to give the Immutables this authority over private healthcare expenditures.

DrRich has often speculated that the real fight regarding healthcare reform will come when the government attempts to limit the ability of American citizens to spend their own money on their own healthcare. This limitation is absolutely necessary if we’re to have a single-payer healthcare system, since if you can spend your own money on your own healthcare, that would be at least two payers. (It would also be “unfair.”)

Many of DrRich’s readers think it’s absurd to think we’re headed toward a single-payer system. DrRich hopes these readers are correct. But he also thinks there’s plenty of evidence that some of our leaders are intentionally taking us there. The new healthcare law, at least arguably, is entirely consistent with such an ultimate goal. And if we are ever to have a single-payer system, the government ultimately will need the authority to limit private expenditures.

DrRich does not believe that the Immutables will act immediately to limit the ability of private citizens to spend their own money on their own medical well-being. Such an action would create a great uproar today, and likely for several years to come, at least until those of us who still cling to the quaint notion of individual autonomy are finally worn down, or re-educated, or otherwise made to see the light.

But whenever that time comes, Section 10320 of the new healthcare law appears to give the Immutables all the authority they will need.

(At the same time, those who castigate DrRich for paranoia might consider reading just how far our healthcare system has already come in limiting the prerogatives of individuals.)

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 Healthcare Reform Explained - An Updated Guide For The Perplexed [15:42m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (5)

Now that the great campaign to transform the American healthcare system has passed a critical milestone – the passage of President Obama’s healthcare reform legislation – many Americans find themselves confused about what it all means. What just happened here? What will happen to our healthcare insurance? How much will it cost, and who will pay for it? Why does the whole process seem so darned difficult and confusing?

The confusion is quite natural, since, in fact, nobody really understands what the new legislation says. It is common knowledge that only one or two of our legislators actually read the whole 2700 pages, and those who did only read it so they could make trouble for the President at his Bipartisan Healthcare Roundtable this past spring. (You know who you are, Paul Ryan.)

Remember when Nancy Pelosi said, “We have to pass the bill so we can all find out what’s in it,” and all the Republicans jumped all over her for making such a stupid remark? Well, DrRich is here to tell you that Nancy was displaying uncommon wisdom. Because DrRich now has read large parts of the legislation himself, and can say with confidence that the bill is not merely lengthy, convoluted, and difficult to understand. Rather, its meaning is fundamentally indeterminate.

The indeterminacy of the bill’s language was, of course, intentional. It was done so that, for instance, some legislators could be assured that the bill disallowed Federally funded abortions, and other legislators could be assured that the bill encouraged Federally funded abortions, while the actual language of the bill could be construed to bolster either assertion. Therefore, Speaker Pelosi’s silly-sounding statement was not only correct, but also was probably the most insightful commentary on the bill we’ve heard from any public official.

The bill is now being torn into bits by multitudes of officious bureaucrats, and translated into millions of pages of rules, regulations and guidelines, and then key aspects of those new rules, regulations, &c. will be fought over in courts of law. Once all that is finished, we can all find out what was in it. Just like Nancy said.

In the meantime, whatever the details of our new healthcare system turn out to be, there is a certain clear narrative to our ongoing healthcare saga that, once you understand it, will go a long way toward enlightening you about what’s really going on.

And so, as a public service, DrRich will now explain all this to you in a very simple way, so that – whatever jive you’re hearing from politicians or journalists – you will always get it. For, once you understand a few key concepts, this thing is really pretty easy to follow.

The Fundamental Problem

The fundamental problem with American healthcare is this: None of the pools of money we have created (or ever could create) to pay for our healthcare – whether those pools of money reside with the insurance companies or the government or both – can possibly buy all the healthcare that might benefit all Americans. This means we have to ration healthcare (i.e., intentionally withhold at least some beneficial healthcare from at least some of the people who would benefit from it). But because we’re Americans and Americans don’t ration, we (and in particular, our political leaders) are unable to address this need to ration openly and forthrightly. Therefore, the unavoidable rationing is being conducted covertly.

Until now, most of the covert rationing has been overseen by the health insurance industry. This, indeed, from the very beginning was the primary purpose of modern health insurance companies, as determined by Congress itself when it legislated the formation of HMOs. (See the ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court in Pegram et al. v. Herdrich (98-1949), 530 US 211, 2000.) So, when the health insurers engage in cherrypicking patients, denying medically necessary services, coercing doctors to ration at the bedside, retrospectively canceling the policies of patients after they get sick, and doing everything short of dispatching teams of Ninjas in the dark of night to slaughter some of their more expensive subscribers in their sleep, they are not really being evil. They are only carrying out the job that had been assigned to them by our society. Covert rationing is a dirty, thankless job, but somebody’s got to do it.

The major sin of the health insurers is that, despite their Herculean efforts to harness covert rationing to control costs – and despite the wondrous incentive of greater profits if they do so – they have utterly failed in their assignment. Healthcare costs continue to rise at 3 – 4 times the rise in the cost of living, and within the next couple of decades promises to bring our republic to its fiscal knees (even without all the other stuff that’s making our deficit explode).

This is the healthcare crisis, and it’s real. We simply cannot actually spend $40 trillion on Medicare patients over the next three or four decades (as we’ve explicitly promised the baby boomers). The only real question is whether we will avoid spending all that money thanks to societal disruption and revolution, or by some more civilized means. (The fiscal implosion of our society would of course finally fix our healthcare crisis. Healthcare, far from being an essential and indispensable human need, actually is a luxury, a recent artifact of our advanced, stable, and affluent culture. Runaway healthcare costs, by bringing down our societal stability, will eventually provide its own cure.) Our current “healthcare reform process,” such as it is, is our stab at a more civilized means of addressing our looming impossible fiscal obligations.

What Is Healthcare Reform Actually Going to Reform?

What we are witnessing today is merely a rather messy changing of the guard. The primary responsibility for covert healthcare rationing is going to shift from the health insurers to the government.

The health insurance industry has run out its string. They have had 15+ years of virtually unfettered opportunity to get healthcare costs under control, and they have utterly failed. Over those 15 years, their attitude has evolved from arrogance to concern to abject fear. They finally and starkly realize that they have no clue as to how to control costs. As DrRich has pointed out for three years, the insurance industry has not been looking to block healthcare reform, but rather, was partnering with the reformers in the hope of finding for themselves a graceful exit strategy. They hope to gain one last windfall in profits and stock prices (from mandates and insurance subsidies for the tens of millions of currently uninsured Americans), and once that happens, they hope to settle into the business of administering, and processing transactions for, government controlled healthcare. That is, the insurers hope to become public utilities, since that’s way better than collapsing into oblivion.

So the overriding aim of healthcare reform, with the complete support of the insurance industry, is to conduct an orderly transfer of the pools of money with which we pay for our healthcare – along with the responsibility of managing “risk” and controlling the cost of care (i.e., covert rationing) – away from private insurers and to the government.

Understanding the Players

Government control of healthcare, of course, is precisely what the Republicans accuse the Democrats of wanting, and what the Democrats angrily deny they want.

Understanding the Republicans. Republicans as a group cling to the quaint notion that competition among insurers is all that is needed to reduce healthcare costs; that given the right market incentives, the insurance industry – in its wisdom – will bring healthcare inflation under control. They utterly fail to hear what the insurance companies themselves have said (by their actions): “No mas!”

The Republicans’ arguments ring hollow. It is useless to protest that the Democrat plans will lead to rationing, when not only do we already have rationing, but covert rationing in fact has been the official cost-cutting “plan” assigned to HMOs for decades now. It is useless to protest that 85% of Americans like their current health insurance, when the fiscal reality is that health insurance will change drastically for all Americans over the next decade or so, whether we change it by design or not. It does not matter that a lot of Americans like the health insurance they have now. Keeping it over the long term is not an option.

To a very large extent (DrRich is sorry to say, what with his conservative leanings and all), with such arguments the Republicans have made themselves nearly irrelevant in the current discussion.

Understanding the Democrats. The Democrats were handed the opportunity of a generation. They had a major advantage that Democrats of the Clinton era did not have: the health insurance industry is finished, and the industry knows it. The insurance industry was not going to let this effort fail.

The chief difficulty remaining for the Democrats is that (for their own survival) they must pretend they are not engineering a government takeover of healthcare, when in fact they are. As we have seen, there is not really much choice here. They must take over healthcare even if they don’t want to (though many of them do), because the health insurance industry is finished. The pretense is necessary, however, because the notion of government-controlled healthcare is not something the people – or even many Democrats – want, or are willing to tolerate.

Like the odious job of rationing healthcare (which they have now inherited in entirety), the Democrats must attempt to keep the complete government takeover of the healthcare system as covert as possible.

Which brings us to the biggest problem of all for the Democrats. They now have to take control of covert healthcare rationing. Covert rationing will be much more difficult for a government-run system than it has been for insurance companies. A government healthcare system will not have the opportunity to incorporate the most effective rationing techniques that have been available to the insurance industry – cherrypicking patients, for instance, or canceling the policies of people who get sick. Nor will the government be able to get away with summarily denying patients needed medical services – a standard tactic of HMOs. This is especially true now that chief Republican intellectuals have called everyone’s attention to the possibility of death panels. The unwashed masses, having been duly alerted to the government’s intentions of withholding life-saving healthcare, will now be on the lookout for “unreasonable” denials of care. Any move by the government to refuse to pay for a particular medical service will have to be supported by extremely convincing clinical data (which itself will be very expensive to collect), and even then Americans may not quietly accept such denials. The “death panel watchdogs” will be alert for every move the government makes, and will be quick to howl an alarm.

So the Democrats have won a huge and historic victory. But they are just beginning to figure out what a tiger they have by the tail.

The Bottom Line

As long as we pretend we don’t have to ration our healthcare, any reforms we invent – whether we do it as Republicans or Democrats – will merely add to the confusion, inefficiency, waste, inequity, and ineffectiveness of our healthcare system. How anyone can think that a process so fundamentally grounded in obfuscation and deception as the one we’ve just witnessed will result in anything good is quite beyond DrRich’s comprehension.

Real reform would require us to:

A) Minimize the necessity of imposed rationing by having patients themselves make as many of the spending decisions as possible, using their own money. (Subsidies could be provided to people who don’t have enough of their own money to pay for routine healthcare.)

B) Provide everyone with a high-deductable, catastrophic insurance product to cover non-routine medical expenses. This is where the necessary rationing would take place, but the rationing would be open, transparent, and determined through a public process.

C) Create a private market for “extra” health insurance for those who choose to supplement the universal catastrophic plan with their own funds.

But of course, any plan that relies on both personal responsibility and open rationing is a non-starter. Which is why we are going to get what we are going to get.

Last week, DrRich noted that the Covert Rationing Blog and the ACP Advocate Blog were named as co-finalists in 2009 Medical Weblog Award Competition, in the category of Best Health Policy/Ethics Blog. (Voting continues through Feb. 14.) DrRich, ever the opportunist, latched on to this fortuitous occasion to issue a challenge to Bob Doherty, author of the ACP Advocate blog, to engage in a debate over that very topic – medical ethics. He made this audacious challenge because the ACP is a chief signatory of a new code of “medical ethics for a new millennium,” formally promulgated in 2002 by an international group of medical professional organizations (a grouping DrRich has called – for convenience sake only – the Millennialists). And DrRich has taken great exception to this New Ethics, which, he asserts, does great damage to the doctor-patient relationship and to the medical profession. (DrRich details his objection to the New Ethics here, and describes the right way to do medical ethics here.)

A few days ago Mr. Doherty (who is also the ACP’s Senior Vice President of Governmental Affairs and Public Policy), graciously agreed to engage in this discussion, and promised to do so after consulting with the ACP’s Committee on Ethics, Professionalism, and Human Rights.

DrRich had hoped that Mr. Doherty would reply with a post on his ACP blog, which (since it likely has a vastly greater readership than the CRB), would more effectively give this topic some much-needed airing – and in particular, might engage some of the ACP’s membership (specialists in internal medicine) in this important discussion. DrRich was disappointed, then, when the reply came today in the form of a comment, which was tacked on to a long queue of reader’s comments at the end of DrRich’s posting.

DrRich was also very disappointed by the content of the reply which, fundamentally, was: This is a non-issue, and even if it was an issue, it’s now a settled issue. (So go away.)

Because he fears that his readers may not find the ACP’s response (buried as it is), DrRich will post it here in its entirety. But first he will very briefly summarize his complaint against the New Ethics promulgated by the ACP and other Millennialists. The New Ethics takes classical medical ethics (which obligates doctors to always place the welfare of their individual patients first) and adds on to it a new ethical obligation, called Social Justice, which obligates doctors to work toward “the fair distribution of healthcare resources.” This new obligation (which is to society) will inherently conflict, at least some of the time, with the physician’s traditional obligation to the individual patient. So, under the New Ethics, the doctor’s loyalty is now officially divided. DrRich asserts that this divided loyalty (which is now declared to be entirely ethical) leaves the patient in a dangerous position, and breaks the profession of medicine.

In the ACP’s response Mr. Doherty begins: “I asked Dr. Virginia Hood, chair of ACP’s Committee on Ethics, Professionalism, and Human Rights, to respond to Dr. Rich’s post. Her reply is below:”

Much ado?

We are surprised to see the comments about ACP and medical ethics. We urge readers to read the actual text of the ACP Ethics Manual (the College’s Code of Ethics) and the Professionalism Charter, which the College’s Foundation helped develop. Both say that social justice is a consideration in medical ethics, but the physician’s primary responsibility is to his or her patient. Resource allocation decisions are policy decisions and are most appropriately made at the system level, not at the bedside. The Ethics Manual discusses at length the clinician’s primary role as an advocate for individual patients. But it also notes the duty to practice effective health care and use resources responsibly, which are not incompatible with being a patient advocate. As the Manual notes, physicians should not overtest or otherwise overuse services:

Physicians have a responsibility to practice effective and efficient health care and to use health care resources responsibly. Parsimonious care that utilizes the most efficient means to effectively diagnose a condition and treat a patient respects the need to use resources wisely and to help ensure that resources are equitably available [i].

This is nothing new. Indeed using “effective and efficient health care and health care resources responsibly” for all patients is one way to minimize rationing as the result of an over costly system. The Manual also says that physicians and their professional societies should work toward ensuring access to health care for all and the elimination of discrimination, and deficiencies in availability and quality, in health care services. Likewise, the Charter on Medical Professionalism endorsed by ACP and 120 other medical organizations in the USA and internationally, states that professionalism involves commitments to improving quality of care, improving access to care, eliminating discrimination in health care, and yes, to a just distribution of finite resources. But the Charter explains the commitment to a fair distribution of finite resources as follows:

While meeting the needs of individual patients, physicians are required to provide health care that is based on the wise and cost-effective management of limited clinical resources. They should be committed to working with other physicians, hospitals, and payers to develop guidelines for cost-effective care. The physician’s professional responsibility for appropriate allocation of resources requires scrupulous avoidance of superfluous tests and procedures. The provision of unnecessary services not only exposes one’s patients to avoidable harm and expense but also diminishes the resources available for others [ii].

The patient-physician relationship and our medical ethics are the soul of medicine. The blog commentators are correct– it is important that we get it right.

Thank you.

Virginia Hood, MD, FACP
Chair, American College of Physicians Ethics, Professionalism and Human Rights Committee

As much as DrRich may feel he has been condescended to here (as if the ACP has found a fly buzzing around its head and has attempted to swat it away), and recognizing that the ACP has decided not to engage in a give-and-take (which, of course is their prerogative), but rather, has responded with a brush-off statement which they have chosen to bury in the comments section of DrRich’s obscure blog (which is also their prerogative), DrRich will attempt to reply as politely and as analytically as possible. (He does, however, sincerely hope that Mr. Doherty – who really seems like a good person and is an excellent writer – will not be called to the woodshed for obligating an august Ethics Committee Chairperson from this prestigious organization to issue a formal response to an annoying blogger such as himself.)

Dr. Hood’s artful (and dismissive, it seems to DrRich) statement can be fairly summarized thusly: After beginning with the implication that DrRich is making much ado (about nothing), and that she is surprised that anyone would dissent from ACP’s New Ethics, she says that the New Ethics does not entail the problem that DrRich alleges; indeed, there really is nothing new about it. Of course patients come first. (Just study the various documents the ACP has published on this point.) Cost-effective and efficient care is a part of good medicine, and always has been. What we mean by a fair distribution of finite resources is to practice medicine wisely, so as not to waste resources and not to expose patients to the risk of medical services they do not need. The legitimacy of the New Ethics is supported by the fact that it has been formally adopted by 120 medical organizations internationally (which to DrRich means that when you go to a doctor anywhere, this is the code of ethics under which they are now officially practicing).

There is a lot in her statement DrRich could comment on, but he does not want to bore his readers with a lengthy parsing of this finely crafted response. Rather, he will just talk about its main point.

Fundamentally, Dr. Hood is denying that there’s any problem. There’s no conflict between “the fair distribution of healthcare resources” and doing what’s best for individual patients – and furthermore, she’s surprised anyone would think so.

DrRich does not accuse her of sophistry. Perhaps she is just deceived.

The fact that there are huge conflicts between providing individuals with all the healthcare that would likely be useful to them, and the inability of society to pay for such a thing, is the fundamental problem with the public funding of healthcare. We simply can’t afford to buy everybody all the healthcare that would likely benefit them. There’s not enough money in the world to do that.

Consider just a few of the examples DrRich has discussed here over the years. Implantable defibrillators have been shown to significantly improve the survival of a substantial minority of patients who have heart disease, and indeed guidelines issued by cardiologists’ professional organizations indicate that defibrillators ought to be implanted at a rate of about five times their current actual implant rate. But if doctors actually did that, it would cost Medicare an extra $7 – $8 billion each year. Then there’s the fact that if doctors used the statin drug Crestor in the way the very well-designed and compelling JUPITER trial says doctors should use it, we would be spending an extra $10 billion per year on Crestor. In a thousand ways, the “best” healthcare for the individual is very often not cheaper (or better for society) than less-good healthcare, and DrRich is impressed that Dr. Hood is willing to say that it is.

Dr. Hood would likely deal with this problem, and implies so, by devising “guidelines” that doctors would be ethically obligated to follow. Obviously, it is entirely possible to convert “guidelines” from just that (i.e., a set of guidelines which doctors ought to take into strong account when deciding what’s best for their individual patients) into a set of formal rules that must be followed, and which will then be enforced by federal regulators (and their posse of ethicists). Indeed, such “guidelines” might be one of the ways in which society imposes its own goals over those of individual patients. But that is not the same thing as insisting that individual patients (who often do not fit the “average” profile) will necessarily profit if doctors always follow the guidelines as a matter of policy, or of enforced expectations, or of “quality”.

(Further, as DrRich has pointed out, the rapidly developing paradigm in which “guidelines” are becoming inviolate rules has led competing organizations to rush to issue their own sets of competing guidelines, that best comport with their individual agendas. While this phenomenon of “guideline wars” is endlessly amusing, it may not always serve the best interests of doctors or their patients.)

And then there’s the problem that, no matter how you define “waste” or “inefficiency” or “unnecessary care,” there simply cannot be enough of it to account for the runaway healthcare inflation we’re seeing (as DrRich has shown here). A substantial proportion of this fiscally disastrous healthcare inflation must necessarily derive from the delivery of healthcare that is actually useful.

So the crux of Dr. Hood’s reply – that all the ACP is talking about when it mandates that doctors fairly distribute limited resources is that they ought to practice good medicine, and if they did that simple thing no useful therapy would need to be withheld from any individual patient – is absurd on its face.

DrRich would be less disturbed by Dr. Hood’s assertion if he really thought it was simply a misapprehension of the truth. And perhaps it is. After all, her statement reads as if she is truly surprised that anyone would think otherwise.

Perhaps Dr. Hood came to her high station within the ACP’s Ethics Committee very recently, and is unaware of the history of the new Professionalism Charter which advanced this New Ethics, or of the controversy that was raised by many critics at the time of its adoption, or indeed, of some of the language that was in its penultimate version (and that was likely removed to silence some of those critics). Indeed, she cannot be aware if it, since she is “surprised to see” that anyone is bothered by the Charter, and since she believes that questioning it is but “much ado.” But to anyone who knows a little of that history, Dr. Hood’s assertion that controversy over this Charter is a novel experience, or most especially, her assertion that this New Ethics is really “nothing new,” would come as a very great surprise indeed.

First, we should note, if the new Professionalism Charter was really “nothing new,” and was just a restatement of the physician’s traditional obligation to place the patient first, and if fairly distributing society’s resources really was just a matter of practicing good medicine, then there would have been no need for a new Charter of medical ethics in the first place. And certainly the need would not have been pressing. It would have served quite nicely instead to produce some sort of document reminding doctors that unneeded healthcare services expose their patients to unneeded risk, so (based on the traditional ethical precept of patient welfare), to remain ethical they must stop being wasteful. Certainly, this kind of wasteful medicine would not produce a need to redefine medical ethics.

But the new Charter’s very first sentence describes something more dire, more pressing, than can be explained by Dr. Hood’s benign assertions. It says, “Physicians today are experiencing frustration as changes in the health care delivery systems in virtually all industrialized countries threaten the very nature and values of medical professionalism.” So: the whole purpose of this new Charter, its entire impetus, was the frustration of physicians.

Frustration? What frustration is that? Interestingly, the document does not come right out and say it. The closest it comes to spelling it out is to say, “We share the view that medicine’s commitment to the patient is being challenged by external forces of change within our societies.”

But even though the document seems strangely reticent about spelling out which frustration produced the very impetus for its creation, we can rely on the fact that the document must be designed to cure this mysterious frustration (whatever it is), and that the only revolutionary change in the document is an addition to the code of medical ethics requiring physicians to work for “the fair distribution of healthcare resources.” We can only conclude that this new ethical obligation is meant as a cure for that foundational frustration, and that therefore this frustration must be that doctors are finding it impossible to meet their traditional ethical obligation to to place their patients’ needs first.

But, as it happens, we do not really have to resort to this sort of documentary detective work to parse out the purpose of the new Professionalism Charter. That purpose was quite open at the time this document was being developed – and it produced robust controversy that was certainly no secret. One can read about this controversy in many places, but for our purposes now (i.e., in replying to Dr. Hood’s assertion that there’s nothing new here, and that it is a matter of some astonishment that anyone would find the Physicians Charter controversial) it might be best to refer to one of the ACP’s own publications from that time.

An article in the July, 2001 ACP-ASIM Observer, which was entitled, “Charter on medical professionalism addresses issues of finite resources,” goes into some length about the controversy. And it is very plain that the objection many raised to the new Charter was precisely that which DrRich is raising now in his challenge to the ACP: that the New Ethics being espoused in the Professionalism Charter fundamentally and explicitly divides the loyalty of the physician between the patient’s needs and society’s needs. When one listens to the defenders of the new Charter (quoted extensively in the ACP-ASIM Observer article), one finds the unmistakable tones of utilitarianism: We have to change our ethical precepts, the argument goes, because that’s just the way the world works now.

This article also indicates that the draft of the Physicians Charter presented to ACP general membership at their annual meeting in 2001, a few months before the final version was finally published, was perhaps more forthcoming than the final version, regarding what it was really all about. For instance, this nearly-final version of the Charter specifically admonished physicians that they must “be aware that the decisions they make about individual patients have an impact on the resources available to others.” One can only assume that this sort of explicit language was taken out of that final version in response to the critics (who were many, and vocal) to soften the blow.

Indeed, the “softer” language of this strange final version (which has all the hallmarks of a heavily edited document, beginning as it does with a heartfelt cry against the frustrations being experienced by physicians, then neglecting to spell out what those frustrations are, and never explicitly saying which aspect of the document addresses those frustrations), is now possibly soft enough, if not read carefully, to allow defenders of the Professionalism Charter to get away with asserting (as Dr. Hood has done) that the New Ethics is really pretty much the same as the old ethics, and does not change anything. (So move along, move along.)

But the New Ethics changes everything.

DrRich is very sorry about this, and is especially sorry that the ACP’s Ethics Committee, and the other 120 physicians organizations that have adopted this New Ethics, insist they do not see a problem here. DrRich assumes by this response that the ACP has little interest in revisiting its new ethical stance, and further, is undoubtedly busily training today’s medical students that doing what’s best for society is the same as doing what’s best for the individual.

This is a theme, DrRich thinks, he’s heard a lot lately.

Patients who want a true advocate in their life-and-death encounters with the healthcare system, an advocate whose loyalty is not divided between them and a society that, with increasing desperation, wants not to spend its money on them, had better go out and hire their own. Your doctor will now find it officially unethical to serve that office him-or-herself.

And meanwhile, we can now be sure that the physicians organizations which are responsible for protecting the ethical foundation of the profession of medicine are quite satisfied with the job they are doing.

In what has quickly become a bad habit, DrRich once again provides a misleading title. Obviously, there’s plenty of waste and inefficiency in our healthcare system, enough to suit almost any taste, and DrRich deplores every bit of it.

Indeed, DrRich strongly suspects that at least 20 to 30% of all healthcare spending is completely wasted, and has seen claims (masquerading as proof) that the actual value is as high as 50%. So again, despite the title of this post, no matter how you look at it there is plenty of waste and inefficiency to go around.

It’s just that there’s not, well, enough.

Before you go away mad, let DrRich quickly explain (quickly, at least, for DrRich) what he means here. Healthcare reform is in the air, and we all know that any effective healthcare reform is going to have to find a way to control healthcare spending. And a central assumption of any reform plan yet proposed is that we can control spending by eliminating – or at least substantially reducing – the vast amount of waste and inefficiency in the healthcare system. Some propose to do this by incorporating the efficiencies of the marketplace (though these individuals have now been run out of town and won’t be bothering us anymore), some by adopting and enforcing stricter regulations, others by introducing a single payer healthcare system, and still others by mandating new technologies such as electronic medical records. But one way or another, each scheme for reforming healthcare proposes to bring spending under control by reducing waste and inefficiency.

Another way of describing what the reformers are telling us is: There is so much waste in the system that we can avoid healthcare rationing by getting rid of it. Most Americans believe this. Most policy experts believe this. DrRich suspects that even most of his loyal readers believe this, despite what he’s been telling you all this time.

But this is unfortunately false. No matter how much waste and inefficiency you think might be plaguing our healthcare system today, there’s not enough to explain the uncontrolled rise in healthcare spending we have been seeing for decades, and therefore, not enough to allow us to avoid rationing altogether.

And in this sense, there is not “enough” waste and inefficiency in healthcare.

DrRich has tried to explain this before, but he will now try to do it better, because it’s important. He will do it using one of the three universal languages, the language of Math (the other two being the language of Love and the language of Healthcare Rationing, both of which are encumbered by expressions of impassioned pledges, heartfelt exaggerations, and other blandishments, and are thus unsuited to a sober discussion of unpleasant truths).

But first, there is an underlying concept we must agree upon, a concept our political leaders are loath to address. To wit: The real fiscal problem with our healthcare system is not simply that we’re spending a lot of money on healthcare, or even that we’re spending a large proportion of our GDP on healthcare. Surely, if we simply had to live with continuing to spend 15% of our GDP on healthcare, we could figure out a way to do that. But that’s not really the problem. The real problem is that healthcare expenditures are growing at a double digit rate of inflation, several multiples faster than the overall inflation rate, such that, over time, an ever larger proportion of our annual GDP is being consumed by healthcare expenditures. Unless this disproportionate rate of growth is stopped, eventually healthcare spending will consume our entire economy. (Rather, what will actually happen is that it will grow to the point of producing societal upheaval, sending us back to a more typical era for mankind, where healthcare is a little-thought-of luxury, and not a necessity or a right. This will happen well before healthcare consumes 100% of the economy.)

To reiterate, it’s not the amount of spending on healthcare that is creating a fiscal crisis, it’s the rate of growth of that spending.

There are only two things that can possibly account for this excessive inflation in healthcare expenditures. Either it is caused by unrelenting growth in wasteful spending (as we are assured by our political leaders), or it is caused by unrelenting growth in useful healthcare spending. If it is the latter, then in order to get spending under control we must ration. So therefore (we all fervently pray), the rate of growth must be caused by wasted spending.

This desired conclusion, unfortunately, leads to mathematical absurdities, and therefore (for anyone who eschews magical thinking) turns out to be utterly false.

DrRich is going to show you data from a spreadsheet. It illustrates what would have to happen in order for wasteful spending to account for our current healthcare inflation. The spreadsheet is based on the following four assumptions:

Assumption 1) The proportion of healthcare spending today that is wasteful is taken as 25%. The actual number, of course, is not possible to discern with any real confidence. It depends, for one thing, on who gets to define “wasteful.” If I’m a 92-year-old man who gets a $12,000 stent procedure to eliminate my angina, I and my doctor might consider it money well-spent, while you might consider it wasteful. DrRich has arbitrarily chosen a number that falls within the range of popular estimates. But it’s a spreadsheet. If you don’t like 25%, substitute your own estimate. You will find that the rate of wasteful spending we assume for Year 1 in this spreadsheet has little effect on the outcome.

Assumption 2) The annual overall rate of growth of healthcare spending (i.e., healthcare inflation) is 10%.

Assumption 3) The annual growth rate of useful (i.e., not wasted) healthcare spending is economically well-behaved. That is, it matches the rate of overall inflation. The spreadsheet therefore assumes a 3% annual inflation rate for useful healthcare spending. (DrRich begs his readers to notice that this assumption is the one implicitly invoked whenever anyone says that all we need to do in order to control healthcare costs is to eliminate waste and inefficiency. In effect, our spreadsheet is designed to test the logic of this assumption. This assumption must be true if we are to to avoid healthcare rationing, because if useful healthcare spending were not economically well-behaved, then no matter what the rate of growth for wasted healthcare spending, we would still have disproportionate healthcare inflation – and rationing would be unavoidable.)

Assumption 4) The difference between the “well-behaved” growth of useful healthcare spending and the overall rate of healthcare inflation is accounted for by spending on waste and inefficiency. This of course, is the assumption that underlies all proposals for healthcare reform.

(Note: If you would like to play with the actual spreadsheet itself, e-mail DrRich and he’ll send it to you: DrRich at covertrationingblog dot com)

We see from this table several things. First, as expected, the amount of money we’re spending on healthcare, assuming a rate of healthcare inflation of 10%, is doubling roughly every 8-9 years, a growth rate that is ultimately unsupportable.

Second, in order to account for this unsupportable growth in healthcare spending by invoking waste and inefficiency, the proportion of healthcare spending that is caused by waste must increase to ridiculous proportions very rapidly, such that (for instance) by the 10th year we will have more than doubled (59%) the proportion of all healthcare expenditures that are wasteful; and by the 20th year, nearly 80% must be wasteful. Similarly, the proportion of the annual increases in healthcare spending that would have to be due to waste and inefficiency rapidly climbs to equally ridiculous proportions. By year 5, wasteful spending will have to account for 82% of the annual increase in healthcare expenditures, and that proportion continues to climb, eventually approaching 100%.

To DrRich, these numbers seem absurd on their face. But if you still need to be convinced, consider that in real life, runaway healthcare inflation has already been taking place for decades – so our position on such a spreadsheet would not be at year 1, but at year 20 (or higher). And no matter what value for wasteful spending we might have plugged in at year 1, by year 20 wasteful spending would have to be well above 80%, and more likely approaching 100%. In order for waste and inefficiency to account for the situation in which the American healthcare system finds itself today, therefore, one would have to believe that virtually all healthcare spending is wasteful. (And if you believe that, then what does it matter that tens of millions can’t afford healthcare?)

Now let us illustrate the same point in a slightly different way. This time, let’s assume that as recently as 2006, our healthcare system was 100% efficient. That is, only three years ago there was no waste whatsoever. Then let’s allow that the remaining three assumptions given above are still operative. The following table results:

We can see from these results that, even if only three years ago we had a completely efficient healthcare system, in order for waste to account for the excess growth in healthcare spending we’ve experienced since that time, then as much as 74% of today’s annual increase in spending has to be due to waste and inefficiency. Indeed, unless at some point within the second term of George W. Bush we actually had a completely efficient healthcare system (which seems doubtful), this spreadsheet tells us (again) either that our fervently held belief that waste and inefficiency accounts for healthcare inflation is completely wrong, or that today virtually all of our annual increase in healthcare spending must be due to waste and inefficiency, and none due to useful healthcare.

Play with the spreadsheet yourself. You will quickly see that as long as we insist that wasteful spending must account for the unsustainable growth we’re seeing in healthcare costs, then whatever our assumptions may be regarding the current proportion of wasteful healthcare spending – whether we say it’s 20% or 50% or 0% – we very quickly encounter the same mathematical absurdities.

One can only surmise from this analysis (done, DrRich reminds you, with actual Math) that our desired conclusion is wrong. A substantial proportion of our growing healthcare expenditures must necessarily be coming from real, honest-to-goodness, useful healthcare. And if we’re going to substantially curtail that growth, we’re going to have to curtail useful spending. Which means we have to ration.

But, once again, we’re Americans and Americans don’t ration. Which is why we’ve commissioned the big insurers and the government to do the rationing covertly, a task they have accepted with great gusto. DrRich is compelled to point out, once again, that waste and inefficiency is the sine qua non of covert rationing. Disguising all the rationing activity as something other than rationing fundamentally requires opaque procedures, unnecessary complexity, bizarre incentives, Byzantine regulations arbitrarily and variably enforced or ignored, and the diversion of healthcare dollars to non-healthcare ends (such as corporate profits, expanding layers of government bureaucracies, and other massive bureaucracies within the healthcare system created to defend against government bureaucracies). Covert rationing multiplies waste and inefficiency, and does so systematically. To reduce the necessary rationing to the smallest amount possible, we will have to figure out a way to do the rationing openly, and not covertly.

In the meantime, DrRich does not kid himself that exposing the mathematical absurdity of the chief assumption espoused by our political leaders, in their brave efforts to reform healthcare, will change hearts and minds. American political partisans, not to mention the American media, eat mathematical absurdities for lunch. And magical thinking amongst the populace, at least when it comes to the exuberant accumulation of household (and national) debt and the application of medical science, far from being discouraged, is actively promoted.

Podcast:

 

 Introduction to Covert Rationing [15:20m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (13)

The purpose behind DrRich’s Covert Rationing Blog is to explain healthcare rationing in America – why rationing is unavoidable, why we’re doing it covertly, and why covert rationing produces the most destructive kind of healthcare system we could ever imagine.

Many definitions for “healthcare rationing” have been advanced, and most of them talk blandly about such things as the allocation of scarce resources, or the fair distribution of available benefits, or goods, or commodities. DrRich objects to such definitions on the grounds that they are misleadingly soothing. There’s nothing pretty about healthcare rationing. Rationing is bad. And if we’ve got to do it, we ought to face up to exactly what that implies. Facing the facts might keep us more honest.

So, here’s the definition that DrRich likes:

To ration healthcare is to intentionally withhold at least some useful medical services from at least some of the people who would benefit from them.

This definition has the virtue of being straightforward. It does not try to pass the onus of rationing onto those “scarce resources” themselves, or to hide what’s actually going on behind comforting euphemisms.  This definition should make it more difficult for us to dance around the real issue, which is: Healthcare rationing is bad. It will hurt at least some people at least a little bit, and quite possibly it will hurt a lot of people quite a bit.

So if we decide we have no choice but to ration, then we should feel obligated to do it in the least harmful way possible.

Having defined healthcare rationing in this way, it is possible to lay out the entire foundation of the Covert Rationing Blog with a simple four-point thesis.

Point #1: Healthcare rationing is a fiscal imperative. Rationing is fundamentally unavoidable, and therefore, we are not avoiding it.

There are two ways of explaining why healthcare rationing is unavoidable, the short way and the long way. You can read the long way if you wish in DrRich’s book, or in the parent website of this blog. But here, we’ll stick to the short version.

In any advanced society, where a centralized agency of one species or another creates a pool of money from which most of the society’s healthcare bills are to be paid, whether that pool of money is controlled by the government, or by private insurance companies, or by some combination of these, then even if that centralized agency is very large, very powerful, and very coercive, there will always be limits on how much money can be placed into the pool. On the other hand, the amount of money that could conceivably be spent to purchase all the available healthcare for every individual in the population who might benefit from it is essentially limitless.

This limited supply, and limitless demand, means that somebody, somewhere, will not receive all the available healthcare that would be potentially useful to them. So rationing is occurring. Q.E.D.

Point #2: We’re Americans, and Americans don’t ration. So the unavoidable rationing must be, and is being, done covertly.

An endearing trait of Americans, endearing to us Americans at least, is our limitless optimism, our undying belief that anything good that we can imagine can, and will, actually be accomplished. This refusal to recognize limits is responsible for much of the creativity, inventiveness, and productivity that has come from American society. And it has led to much good in the world, resulting, for instance, in most of the remarkable advances in healthcare we’ve seen over the past half-century.

The American culture of no limits, however, can be carried to counterproductive extremes. And that is what has happened with regard to healthcare.

Our “no limits” attitude about healthcare is typically American. It goes like this:

In America we have, and will continue to have, the best healthcare in the world – the best doctors, the best hospitals, and the best technology. Since one cannot place a price on a human life, anything that can be done for a sick person must be done, as long as there is some small hope of even a tiny benefit. Every disease is potentially curable, and as a matter of policy we will strive to learn how to cure very disease that exists (and when we run out of diseases to cure, we’ll invent new ones). Indeed, death itself is merely a manifestation of insufficient technology.

In summary, where healthcare is conderned, there are, and can be, no limits.

We can see the problem right away. While we have inherent spending limitations that unavoidably require healthcare rationing, we find that there can be no limits, and therefore, no rationing. Indeed, there can be no discussion of rationing, except to bitterly condemn the very idea. Any political leader or policymaker who would seriously suggest the idea of healthcare rationing would run squarely into this deeply ingrained culture of no limits, and would immediately become toast.

So, these two basic imperatives shaping our healthcare system – the unavoidable need to ration that will always accompany publicly-funded healthcare, and the culture of no limits – are, in their essence, completely incompatible with one another. Given our deep-seated need to simultaneously cling to both of these incompatible imperatives, our only option is to do the unavoidable rationing in a way that maintains the fiction that no rationing is necessary, in a way that allows us to ration while declaring that there are no limits, and to deny that any rationing is occurring at all. We can ration secretly. We can ration deceptively. We can ration covertly.

And that is what we are doing.

Point #3: Covert rationing is inherently and extravagantly destructive, not only to patients and their doctors, and not only to the healthcare system, but also to our basic American social contract.

Most of the commentaries that appear on the Covert Rationing Blog directly address Point #3. So DrRich will not elaborate on this point here, except to make two brief assertions, whose truth, he believes, should become quickly apparent to anyone reading more than a handful of the posts appearing here.

First, while there are plenty of problems with the American healthcare system, the truly intractable ones are intractable largely because of our need to ration covertly. As long as we continue rationing our healthcare covertly, these problems will persist.

Second, by its very nature covert healthcare rationing is a deeply ironic construction. The whole purpose of rationing is to reduce spending on healthcare, and to control costs. But covert rationing (ironically) always increases expenditures. If we could ration healthcare openly, then it is possible that we could arrange, or at least try to arrange, the rationing in such a way to optimize the efficiency, effectiveness and equity within our healthcare system.

But rationing covertly fundamentally means rationing in whatever way you can get away with it. So, in order to hide the rationing, it imperative to obfuscate, misdirect, complicate, juke, jive, shimmy and shake and do whatever else you must to to convince everyone – often including yourself – that whatever it is you’re doing, it’s not rationing. That is, you’ve got to create an environment of complexity and opacity in which you can get away with it.

As a direct result of this simple truth, simplicity, transparency and efficiency are lethal to a system based on covert rationing, and thus, are systematically rooted out. Covert rationing absolutely requires opaque processes and procedures, superfluous complexity, bizarre incentives, Byzantine regulations which are arbitrarily enforced or ignored in various times and places, and the diversion of healthcare dollars to a complex host of non-healthcare ends, such as commissions, study groups, various czars of this and that, ever-expanding layers of government bureaucracies, and the establishment of other massive bureaucracies within the healthcare system whose purpose is to defend against or manipulate those government bureaucracies.  Covert rationing, by its very nature, demands and creates more waste within our healthcare system, and therefore costs us far more money than it can ever save us.

It is, in this way, a deeply ironic construction.

Point #4: As painful as it may be to contemplate, any reform plan that hopes to provide fair, effective, and efficient healthcare through public funds, and hopes to keep the necessary rationing to a bare minimum, and hopes to preserve the long-term feasibility of a vibrant, and reasonably equitable society, is going to have to acknowledge the unavoidability of rationing, and to devise a completely transparent and open system for doing it.

In general, DrRich will not be addressing detailed solutions to our healthcare crisis on the Covert Rationing Blog, but he does wish to point out that he has, in fact, addressed such solutions in substantial detail elsewhere – in substantially more detail, he submits, than is generally provided by the people who we pay to do this work.

If you would like to find out more about DrRich’s proposed solutions to our healthcare problems, you can look in his book, or on the parent website of this blog.

Before closing this introduction to covert rationing, DrRich would like to add a personal note. In writing the Covert Rationing Blog, DrRich has affected a certain persona that, he humbly submits, is quite unlike his actual self. DrRich of the blogosphere is a bit haughty, perhaps even with a bloated sense of self-worth – insisting, for instance, on referring to himself in the third person. He intentionally employs complex sentence structures, and archaic verbiage, and, in describing the American healthcare system, he often resorts to exaggeration, satire, sarcasm, and above all, irony.

DrRich does all this, first and foremost, because he finds it amusing. He enjoys writing in this manner, especially after having spent several decades writing large quantities of stuff in the stereotypical, dry academic style insisted upon by editors of medical journals and textbooks. Nowadays he enjoys making some of his readers smile. He also derives a certain, perhaps somewhat perverse pleasure in scandalizing some other of his readers, mainly, those who insist on interpreting the written word entirely at face value, and so who will believe, for instance, that DrRich actually likes the fact that 47 milliion Americans have no health insurance, and that he really believes that what our healthcare system needs most is even more waste and inefficiency.  The indignant e-mails he receives as the result of such literal-mindedness – each one of which is a treasure – makes DrRich feel positively Jonathan Swiftian.

But perhaps more relevantly, the arms-length, stand-offish effect of referring to oneself in the third person, and the liberal employment of devices such as circumlocution, sleight-of-hand, faux sincerity, and all manner of irony, are, DrRich hopes, useful and uniquely illustrative in a blog which, after all, purports to illuminate a healthcare system that is behaving in exactly the same way.

DrRich thinks it is important for others to understand covert rationing in the same way he does, and he is not above recruiting every trick he knows in his attempt to accomplish this goal. For as long as we insist on rationing covertly, our healthcare system will remain hopelessly mired in waste, inefficiency, inequity and destructiveness. On the other hand, we can fix this if enough of us understand what we are facing. With the Covert Rationing Blog, DrRich hopes to entice at least a few other people to have a look behind that curtain.