May God Save Us From the Public Health Experts

DrRich | August 23rd, 2011 - 7:45 am

The “expert class” – the knowledgeable elites who are appointed by the Central Authority to establish the rules under which all of us in the great unwashed masses are to live our lives – will always (as a general proposition) tend to do great harm. Nowhere is this result more evident than in the policies promulgated in recent decades by the public health experts.

In each of the following three articles, DrRich deconstructs one of the major initiatives with which public health experts have assaulted the general public in recent years.  Each of these three initiatives was launched with great fanfare, displaying all the arrogant certainty exuded by any religious zealot, but sadly, was based on what to any objective observer was clearly insufficient data.  So the recent crusades against dietary fat, cholesterol, and salt each amounted to a great uncontrolled medical experiment, conducted on the entire population, in which each one of us was enrolled as an unsuspecting and involuntary research subject. The results of these massive experiments are just now coming to light.

Public health experts: stop them before they kill again!
Public Health Experts and The War Against Dietary Fat

Public Health Experts and The War Against Cholesterol

Public Health Experts and The War Against Salt

DrRich Explains The Right To Healthcare

DrRich | August 22nd, 2011 - 7:09 am

Podcast:

If we are ever to gain control of our healthcare spending, which is a necessity if we are going to avoid an economic catastrophe during the next couple of decades, we have to come to some agreement, as a society, on a few essential questions.  Chief among these questions is whether healthcare is something we must consider to be a right for all Americans.

The question of whether healthcare is a right has become a very contentious one. One side passionately declares that of course it is a right, as healthcare is so critically important that how could it be otherwise? And the other side, with equal conviction, asserts that nothing can be a right that creates an involuntary burden on another.

That is, advocates on either side of the argument maintain their respective positions as being axiomatic, as primary and irreducible truths – which does not allow much room for discussion or debate. So instead of dispassionate discussion, we get vituperation. For, when one’s opponent denies an axiomatic truth, he declares himself to be beneath contempt, and unworthy of any degree of respect.

Regular readers will know that DrRich is a peacemaker.  Accordingly, he will attempt an apology for each of these mutually exclusive, fundamentally principled positions. He will follow this by a description of the pragmatic (as opposed to principled) position on the matter taken by our current leaders. Then finally, humble as ever, he will offer the “real” answer to the question of whether healthcare is a right.

The Conservative Position

Conservatives (and in most matters, DrRich is among this lot) think of “rights” in terms of “natural rights,” that is, in terms of rights which accrue to every person by virtue of the fact that they are members of the human race. Natural rights are generally considered to descend from the Creator (as the Declaration of Independence explicitly says), or at the very least from the inherent nature of the universe, and thus are not subject to addition or subtraction by any human authority – such as by governments.

Because natural rights are granted equally to every human, it follows that there is no such thing as a right that imposes obligations or limitations on the natural rights of others.

A right to healthcare would most certainly require an abridgement of the rights of others, and so there can be no right to healthcare.

The Progressive Position

Most Progressives do not explicitly deny the existence of natural rights, because doing so would cause them embarrassment when they assert their own inherent and unalterable “truths” (such as the superiority of “diversity” over all other human virtues). However, at their core Progressives do not (and cannot) actually subscribe to natural rights, since the Progressive program virtually requires a Central Authority to assign and distribute and enforce various differential “rights” to various groups, in order to achieve social justice.  And achieving social justice is the central requirement for Progressives to reach their ultimate goal of a perfect society.

To Progressives, creating healthcare equality among all Americans is critical to social justice. And so, it becomes axiomatic for them that healthcare must be a right.

It becomes immediately evident that any such “rights” granted under the Progressive program will necessarily create involuntary obligations upon at least some individuals. So it is likewise immediately evident that any “right” for Progressives will fundamentally violate the essence of a “right” for Conservatives.

This impasse, which occurs at the very first step of the discussion, is what prevents Conservatives and Progressives from engaging in any fruitful discussion of whether healthcare ought to be a right.

The Practical Position (The BOSS Rule)

Our current leaders have taken a more practical position on the question of a right to healthcare. They rely on the fact that “rights” are often bequeathed not because of some overarching principle (as with Conservative or Progressive thought), but rather, because of issues of practicality – or more straightforwardly, because the sovereign authority has the desire and the power to do so. They point out that throughout human history innumerable “rights” have been promulgated by the expediency of raw power.

We need only consider, during the course of human events, such widely acknowledged rights as the exceptional rights of the aristocracy (especially the divine rights of kings), the unique rights of the clergy, or the special rights of the Politburo (or the Congress).  The fact is that all of these rights clearly imposed more-or-less oppressive obligations on, and limited the individual rights of, the people. But that is not the least matter of concern. Rights become rights because the exigent authority has the desire to create them, and the capacity to exert violence wherever necessary to enforce them.

In this light, one might say that healthcare is a right in America simply because of the BOSS rule (Because Obama Says So). If Obama says healthcare is a right (and he has said so, many times), and has the raw power to back it up, then, by God, healthcare is a right.

The Correct Position

It is easy to see why the “healthcare is a right” debate has become so contentious – people mean entirely different things when they use the word “right.” A right to a Conservative is a natural phenomenon, awarded equally to all people and fundamentally unalterable by human hands. A right to a Progressive is an essential social construct, enumerated by enlightened leaders, which is necessary to further the principle of social justice. And to some non-ideologues a right is whatever the sovereign authority says it is.

To DrRich, none of these constructs are useful to solving our current problem of healthcare spending.

The Conservative position – that because healthcare cannot possibly be a natural right, therefore there is no right to healthcare – not only seems callous to a large segment of Americans, but (as DrRich will shortly demonstrate) is wrong. The Progressive and Practical positions – that healthcare is a right either because it is necessary to further the supreme cause of social justice, or simply because the Central Authority decrees it to be so – leave us in an untenable position when it comes to reducing healthcare spending.

That untenable position occurs because, when a “right to healthcare” is bestowed by the government, under either the Progressive program or the BOSS rule, that right is open-ended. It immediately takes on the characteristics of an entitlement, a grant bestowed on individuals by society because of the group to which they have been assigned (such as: citizens, residents, people over 65 years of age, a particular racial or ethnic group, etc.) That entitlement is to “healthcare” – that is, for whatever we can get the authorities (by whatever political maneuvering we choose to engage) to agree that “healthcare” includes, whether it is well-baby checks, artificial hearts, chemotherapy, extravagant end-of-life care, hair transplants, or cosmetic surgery. A right like this – an entitlement – is rarely taken away, or even limited, once granted. Entitlements are soon seen by their recipients (and by the vested interests that quickly spring up to defend those entitlements, such as the bureaucracy that regulates them, the companies that supply the products for them, and the healthcare professionals that administer them) as something that is owed forever, as a natural, God-given right, which can always be expanded, but never ever restricted.

DrRich, therefore, finds all these positions on a right to healthcare to be unhelpful. For this reason DrRich proposes a new position on a right to healthcare, a position which he humbly calls the Correct Position.

To wit: all Americans have an implied contractual right to healthcare. We have this right because we have long since entered into a contract under which, in exchange for implied considerations, we’re all paying for it.

Under the present healthcare system, a system we have devised over the past six decades through our duly elected representatives, every person living in the United States is sharing in the cost of healthcare for every person who receives healthcare. Since every American, in one or more ways, is paying for the healthcare of every American who receives it, every American has a just claim – a contractual right – to their fair share of that healthcare.

Let us list some of the ways in which Americans all share in the cost of all healthcare:

1) Anyone receiving a paycheck is subject to payroll deductions to pay for Medicare for the elderly and Medicaid for the poor.
2) Anyone paying income tax is paying higher tax rates to offset tax-deductible health insurance premiums purchased by businesses for their employees. (That is, employer-provided health insurance is subsidized by the taxpayer.)
3) Anyone buying products in the U.S. is paying higher prices to cover the healthcare costs of American businesses.
4) Anyone living in America is sharing in the massive societal burden we are creating by allowing healthcare spending to be passed off to future generations, by way of the national debt.

These costs, and more, are borne by everybody living in the U.S. And since all Americans are paying the cost of all healthcare – even the cost of so-called “private” health insurance – we all have a right, in the form a consideration under a contract, to claim some of that healthcare for ourselves. To deny this fact would void the contract.

It is important to note that this argument for a right to healthcare is fundamentally different from the arguments typically given. This contractual right is not “granted” to an individual by a beneficent society because of some inherent characteristic of the recipient, but rather, it exists solely because the individual is party to a social contract, created by the peoples’ representatives, under which healthcare is a consideration given in return for certain obligations the individual makes to society. Those obligations would include paying for the publicly-funded healthcare through taxes, and subjecting oneself to whatever limits to publicly-funded healthcare such a system requires in order to maintain societal integrity.

It is critical to understand that this kind of contractual right to healthcare enables us, legally end ethically, to set necessary limits on what we mean by healthcare. The “right” to healthcare is a contractual right, and not a natural right or an ethical requirement.  So, under that contract,  as in any contract between consenting parties, we have a duty to specify the limits of our mutual obligations, that is, to specify what we mean by “healthcare.” Furthermore, we have a duty to specify what we mean by “healthcare” in such a way that fulfilling the contract does not bring about national bankruptcy or otherwise cause societal destruction.

There would no longer be an obligation to provide individuals with every manner of available healthcare under all circumstances, but only to provide individuals with that level of healthcare which is provided as a public benefit to all other individuals, under the terms of the social contract. (An entitlement to healthcare, in contrast, traditionally is an open-ended promise in which “healthcare” comprises anything and everything one might think has any possibility of restoring every bit of health.)

To summarize, as DrRich sees it we have already created a contractual obligation to provide publicly-funded healthcare to all individuals, by virtue of the fact that we have burdened every individual in America with the cost of healthcare for anyone who is now receiving it. In contrast to the Conservative position, DrRich’s formulation recognizes a right that truly exists, by virtue of a contract that is unarguably in force, and that has been enacted over a long period of time through the offices of the people’s elected representatives. And unlike the Progressive position, DrRich’s formulation does not entrap us into an open-ended obligation to pay for all “healthcare,” however our collective sentiments may entice us to define that term.

We might as well own up to our responsibilities by openly recognizing : a) the universally-shared payments we all make to the cost of American healthcare: b) the right of all Americans to the considerations that arise from this universally-shared burden; and c) that it is right and proper for us to establish clear limits to the obligations borne by all the parties, as we must do with any legitimate contract.

The open recognition of this contractual right to healthcare will finally give us the framework we need for a public discussion on setting necessary limits on publicly-subsidized healthcare spending.

And this, DrRich most humbly submits, is the correct answer to whether healthcare is a right.

It Is Your Duty To Maintain Wellness

DrRich | August 15th, 2011 - 7:26 am

Podcast:

DrRich considers it his responsibility to point out to his readers certain truths related to modern American healthcare which may not be obvious to everyone, and which the fine people in the mainstream press choose not to mention.

Be honest. If it weren’t for DrRich, would you be aware that the only reason Obamacare became the law of the land is that the private insurance companies needed it in order to have any hope of long term survival?  Would you understand that the Progressive healthcare system to which we are now legally committed inherently requires all of the following things (while loudly proclaiming the opposite): ending the classic doctor-patient relationship; preventing individuals from spending their own money on their own healthcare; killing off the practice of primary care medicine; to the furthest extent possible, limiting preventive medicine; and stifling medical innovation?

One thinks not.

And so, DrRich hopes you will pay attention as he reveals yet another poorly-appreciated truth about our new healthcare system. Namely, it has become the case that maintaining your own wellness is not merely something which would be desirable, something you ought to do, or at least something you ought to want to do. It is now your duty.

You owe it to society to maintain your wellness, to take every step at your disposal to keep yourself from needing to consume healthcare resources. You owe it because healthcare is now a collective responsibility. And if your chosen actions (or inactions) cause you to become unwell, and if your unwellness causes you to consume healthcare resources which otherwise might have been available to individuals who (unlike yourself) became ill through no fault of their own, and if such faultless individuals subsequently suffered or died as a consequence of your failure to honor your duty, well then – that would make you no different from any other common criminal whose selfish actions produce harm to their innocent victims.

Maintaining your wellness is not a nice-to-have; it is your non-negotiable obligation.

You have been told that your wellness is very important to the caring people who will run our new healthcare system. And indeed, it is. So you will, by law, be “entitled” to annual, detailed “wellness checks,” provided by a dedicated team of healthcare workers, who will assess (and record) your efforts to maintain your own wellness, and then will give you all the instruction you need to alter whatever suboptimal behaviors you are displaying. The results of these annual wellness checks will be entered into a federally-approved universal electronic medical record, so that any healthcare provider, anywhere, at any time, will have a complete record of the trajectory of your state of wellness over the years – and of the degree of your compliance with the instructions you have received for maintaining that wellness.

Of course, if you elect to forgo the annual wellness checks to which you are entitled, that information (i.e. that you cared so little for your wellness that you couldn’t be bothered to do anything about it) will also be maintained in the universal electronic records.

Then, when you become ill 10 or 20 years from now, your records can be consulted to decide to what extent your illness can be considered self-induced. For, when resources are scarce, the only moral thing to do is to distribute them according to who is the most deserving.

Most readers are now thinking that DrRich is paranoid. Guilty as charged. However, DrRich’s paranoia, regarding the kinds of behaviors of which our Central Authority is capable, is based on hard experience. Indeed, it is evidence-based.

Still, DrRich is enough of a realist to understand that it is unreasonable to ask his readers to just trust him here. Instead, let’s examine patterns of behavior, regarding supposedly self-induced disease, which our society is already displaying. The best example, one which DrRich has written about extensively, is obesity.

We are witnessing a sustained and ongoing campaign to demonize the obese. Consider: While we are universally urged to stifle any impulsive speech or sentiments which, by any stretch of the daintiest of sensibilities, might make any member of any group (however you choose to define a group) the least bit uncomfortable, it is perfectly OK to castigate the obese, loudly and often. We can say about the obese anything we like.  Screw their feelings. It is perfectly fine to insist that it is the obese – gluttonous, lazy, self-indulgent, slothful fat people – who are driving our healthcare spending off a cliff. It is acceptable to publish ridiculously flawed papers in respected scientific journals proving that global warming is caused by the obese (thus pinning upon them the responsibility for upcoming catastrophes of unimagined proportions), and demonstrating that obesity is a contagious disease (which will justify any actions we may choose to take to concentrate the obese into special camps).

A person’s choice to allow themselves to get fat already justifies more than mere words of castigation. Under the British Health Service (the model to which Dr. Berwick and other of our current healthcare heroes openly aspire), the obese (along with smokers, another group of selfish sub-humans who use an unfair share of healthcare) are now being removed from the waiting lists for medical services.* By virtue of their obesity (and the lack of social responsibility their obesity indicates), fat people have forfeited their equal access to healthcare.

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*Removing the fat from the waiting lists has at least two beneficial effects. It punishes them, of course, for their selfish refusal to maintain their own wellness. But it also reduces the long waiting lists that exist in Britain for medical services, closer to the target waiting times which the government has been promising its citizens for decades.
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Demonizing the obese has many advantages. Chief among these is that the obese are easy to spot. In contrast to the Jews of Nazi Germany, one does not have to sew a Star of David to their jackets to know which individuals are wrecking the culture. By just walking down the street (not that fat people do all that much walking, lazy SOBs) they reveal themselves, by their unsightly corpulence, to be one of those people who are ruining the healthcare system for the rest of us. And we svelter, more worthy citizens can look upon them with the scorn they deserve.

Especially now that we have so many programs and policies aimed at preventing obesity – putting apple slices in Happy Meals, publishing calorie counts in restaurants, being lectured at by First Ladies and skinny movie stars, &c., – anyone who still chooses to remain obese despite all this abundant assistance must be especially contemptible.

Perhaps most useful of all, in the long run, is the fact that real, honest-to-goodness, health-threatening obesity almost always has a strong genetic component. When we learn to demonize the obese, we are learning that wellness is a duty even if your genes (or some other force that is largely beyond your control) mitigates against it.

The obese, therefore, are the perfect target. Thanks to them, we are teaching ourselves that it is right and proper to disdain individuals who are leading less than exemplary lives.

Once we have learned this lesson well, it should be relatively easy for us to apply the same kind of disdain to others who who fail to honor their duty to maintain their own wellness. Most of these scurrilous individuals will not be so obvious to spot as fat people.  But at the end of the day, they will reveal themselves in the ultimate manner – they eventually will fall sick. And by their diseases we shall know them.

For the past several years, our healthcare experts have been busy declaring more and more illnesses to be “preventable.” And if an illness is preventable, and an individual fails to prevent it – well, what more do you need? That person has obviously failed to perform their sacred duty to society, and has forfeited any claim to the healthcare we more deserving people can expect.

The list of illnesses which are officially preventable now includes coronary artery disease, heart failure, kidney failure, diabetes, stroke and many kinds of cancer. And just a week or two ago, Alzheimer’s disease was added to the list.

It is possible that in a decade or so, if you acquire an illness from this growing list of “preventable” medical disorders – especially if your annual wellness checks reveal that you have gained weight since college, or you habitually fail to exercise at least 90 minutes per day, or that you imbibe less than one or greater than two alcoholic beverages per day – you may be triaged to Tier B healthcare. Tier A will be reserved for people who obviously care more than you do about wellness, and about their duty to society. Just as obesity does today, the state of your health will demonstrate your true commitment to the perfect society to which we all aspire.

For, when it is your duty to maintain wellness, your illness reveals a grave dereliction.

A Revered Ethicist Argues For Restricting Direct-Pay Practices

DrRich | August 11th, 2011 - 5:30 pm

Podcast:

DrRich, in his last post, attempted to show why a direct-pay medical practice is the only remaining pathway by which PCPs may preserve the classic doctor-patient relationship, and for patients to assure themselves that they are working with a doctor who at least has the prerogative to actually place their individual interests first, above all those other powerful, ruthless, contrary interests, which are striving to control the behaviors of their doctors.

He attempted to show this by making an argument founded in the principles of medical ethics.

As it happens, one of today’s best-known medical ethicists, at about the same time, was telling doctors just the opposite. Arthur Caplan, at the University of Pennsylvania Center for Bioethics, published this advice for doctors at Medscape.com. Here is the meat of Dr. Caplan’s admonition:

“No matter how you look at it, if you allow providers to buy out, you are going to leave other patients with lower-quality care, and you are going to burden the remaining primary care practitioners (who don’t take the concierge route) with more work.”

DrRich has two comments.

First, this argument against direct-pay practices is based solely on the goal of social justice.

DrRich has not been shy about expressing his disdain for the views of your typical, modern medical ethicist. Most of these individuals today embrace the utilitarian camp of medical ethics, wherein formerly revered niceties based on ethical precepts (like the classic doctor-patient relationship) must take a back seat to the goals of social justice. And where social justice is concerned the ends justify the means.

Achieving “social justice,” of course, always and inherently requires a powerful Central Authority which has the muscle to make sure that all of the benefits of life are distributed in a just and fair way. What is just and fair, of course, is to be determined by groups of sanctioned experts, a sort of expert class with guns. These will determine who gets what, when and how.

So once again a member of the group of sanctioned experts, who will determine how things are to be, comes right out and tells us: a doctor who embraces the kind of medical practice where a doctor’s only responsibility is to the needs of his/her patient is behaving unethically.

Second, DrRich calls your attention to the most interesting and revealing phrase uttered by Dr. Caplan: “If you allow practitioners to buy out. . .”

What Dr. Caplan is saying is that doctors must not be allowed to establish direct pay practices. It must not be left to them. We must prevent them from doing so. That is, it must be made illegal.

He is laying out a formal ethical argument for doing what DrRich has been warning his readers, over and over again, the Progressives are bound and determined to do: to make it illegal to sell medical services directly to individuals, and for individuals to purchase medical services with their own money. You can only get your healthcare when, how and from whom the Central Authority says.

The message won’t get much more explicit than this, dear readers. DrRich begs you to take heed before it is too late.

Why This Isn’t Armageddon

DrRich | July 28th, 2011 - 10:19 am

Podcast:

We are, the pundits tell us, staring down the barrel of an economic catastrophe. By this time next week, we may all be huddled in our darkened hovels, breaking up furniture for our meager fires, roasting the family dog for our sustenance, and dreading the likely invasion by the great Canadian menace.*

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*By cutting government spending and not raising taxes, the Canadians have not only turned a deep recession into an economic boom, but have set an embarrassing example which our leaders in Washington and our press have taken great pains not to notice. The Canadians indeed are a menace.
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But fear not. DrRich is here to assure his readers that, despite what you’ve been told, this isn’t Armageddon. He offers three proofs for this assurance.

First, the debt limit is a meaningless fiction.

The term debt “limit” implies that there is some limit to the amount of borrowing which we can do; that we may borrow money up to a certain and well-defined point, and no further. But history tells us this is absurd.

Each and every time we decide we’d like to spend more money than the debt limit says we can spend, we simply increase the debt limit. We have blithely blown past dozens of supposed debt limits in recent years, with nary a glance behind us.

DrRich is not sure why we have a debt limit at all. At some point, he supposes, somebody determined that publishing a debt limit would convince people (which people? the voters? the credit-rating agencies? the Chinese?) that we actually have some sort of built-in controls to our fiscal profligacy. But surely, after decades of treating our debt limits with less regard than one would treat speed bumps during a police chase, nobody can actually believe that we would honor those limits, ever, under any circumstances. It is obvious that the only thing debt limits can accomplish is to create transient, artificial fiscal crises, like the one we are all enjoying now.

The only logical solution to our current crisis is to simply eliminate debt limits once and for all. We would not be giving up anything substantial, since no debt limit has ever been honored nor ever will be. Debt limits clearly do no good; they only cause trouble.

So DrRich offers this solution, this change we can all believe in: Eliminate the debt limit altogether.

No problem which has such a simple and happy solution can be Armageddon.

The second reason this is not Armageddon is: One cannot schedule Armageddon.

The current debt ceiling, the one we’re going to exceed on Tuesday, is $14.3 trillion. The President wants it increased by another $2 trillion or so, enough to delay the next debt ceiling crisis until after his re-election. This, of course, is understandable. The Republicans, it appears, would like to increase the debt limit by a lesser amount, so that the next crisis will occur at a time more to their convenience. This is also politically logical.

The point here is that, by simple manipulation of the value of the meaningless fiction known as the debt limit, we have full control over scheduling the next debt crisis which will threaten our markets, economy, &c.

A feature of Armageddon upon which everyone can agree is that it cannot be scheduled. Therefore, this is not Armageddon.

The third reason this is not Armageddon is: The amounts of money we’re talking about are too trivial.

Everyone is arguing over the questions of whether we ought to leave the debt limit at $14 trllion, or increase it by another $2 trllion or so, and whether we ought to cut spending and/or raise taxes by a mere $100 billion a year or so. And the results of these arguments, we are told, will determine whether or not, in a few days, the skies will split asunder and the seas will boil away, and Old Farts like DrRich, suddenly bereft of our God-given entitlements, will immediately be reduced to dining on cockroach-kabobs toasted over a smouldering dung fire.

But worrying so much about increasing our debt by another $2 trillion (an amount so massive, so huge, as to be unimaginable to mere mortals) is akin to worrying about having another smoke as one lies dying of lung cancer – it sure won’t help, but either way, the outcome is the same.

Our debt limit, as huge and unmanageable as it is, is not only a fictional construct, but it serves as a soothing distraction from our real fiscal problem – the one that really does promise Armageddon.

Our unfunded liabilities, over the next few decades, for the things our society has promised and is obligated by law to shell out for us Old Farts – things like Social Security and Medicare – is at least $62 trillion, and some have projected double that amount. Now, there’s a real problem.

We can’t talk about that, though. If a politician proposes the first, meager step towards finding a solution to that, they will show up in a TV ad pushing sweet old ladies off a cliff.

In any case, we are not facing Armageddon next week.

That’s for later.

Stock Up On Fancy Feast While You Can

DrRich | July 24th, 2011 - 4:22 pm

Podcast:

While all the Republicans and Democrats in Washington are spending all these fine summer weekends fighting over the debt ceiling, and so far have absolutely nothing to show for it, the smart people at the New York Times have gone ahead and solved the whole debt problem for us.

Blaring at us from the front page of today’s Sunday Review, in huge, bright red print, we see the following chain of logic: A 20% tax on soft drinks will produce a 20% reduction in consumption, which will prevent 1.5 million people from becoming obese, which will prevent 400,000 cases of diabetes – yielding $30 billion in health savings.

This revelation leaves DrRich slapping his forehead and wondering, “Why didn’t I think of that?” Simply use the tax code and the regulatory muscle of the Central Authority to change human behavior in the proper manner, and everything will fall into place.

It takes a special kind of person to believe that human behavior is so predictable, and so controllable, that one can actually titrate in such a manner the amount of obesity that exists in a society, and therefore, titrate the cost of healthcare. It takes a special kind of person to believe that, simply by tweaking a specific tax here, or adding a specific regulation there, one’s actions will yield precisely the response predicted by the “experts,” and that this response will translate precisely down a complex chain of assumptions (based on selective analysis, conjecture and wishful thinking) to yield cost savings anything similar to those predicted, and that the cascade of results (not being subject to any vagaries of human nature) will not have all manner of unintended consequences. That special kind of person is called a Progressive.

Let’s say that some really smart operative in the Obama administration, reading today’s Times, takes it into his head to solve the obesity crisis, the healthcare crisis, and the debt crisis all in one brilliant stroke, and accordingly, gets the President to appoint the entire New York Times Editorial Staff as the country’s new Czar of Food. These fine folks, sensing a once in a lifetime opportunity and not wanting to squander it on such small potatoes as a softdrink tax, decide to go all out. They institute large, prohibitive taxes on ALL the foods consumed by our society that contribute to our obesity. As a result, the only foodstuffs that remain untaxed are fresh fruits, vegetables, and fish. (And, considering the possibility that one or more of the NYT editorial staffers may very well be vegans, DrRich is not sure about the fish.)

According to the Times’ variety of calculus, this action will have remarkably positive consequences.  The consumption of unhealthy, obesity-producing foods will drop by some very large amount – probably 90% if the taxes are high enough – and American obesity will nearly disappear. Diabetes will go the way of tuberculosis and leprosy, all the other medical disorders made worse by obesity will greatly diminish, and we will save trillions of dollars in healthcare expenditures.

What would actually happen, of course, is quite different.

If all sugary foods and fatty foods and processed foods were heavily taxed, the demand on the untaxed foods (the fruits, vegetables and fish) would skyrocket, and prices would go through the roof. Only the very wealthy could get all the healthy food they wanted. The merely wealthy would get some of the healthy food, and would supplement their diets with the unhealthy stuff, grudgingly paying the excessive taxes to do so. DrRich does not know what the poor would do for food, but he bets they would be pissed.

A lot of other unpleasant things would happen as well. The companies that process foods and soft drinks – and most American restaurants – would suffer badly, and would probably go out of business. Robust black markets would establish themselves, trafficking in inexpensive, calorie-dense (and possibly even tasty) foodstuffs, which would now be produced in Mexico, Canada and China instead of in the US. Junk food cartels would murder each other along our borders. Americans would find themselves envying, rather than pitying, that occasional old fart who is discovered dining on a can of Fancy Feast Cat Food.

And furthermore, Americans will learn something about one’s ideal body weight that we don’t hear too much about today, because it does not fit into the “overweight is bad” narrative. Namely, while severe obesity is very bad for your health, being a little overweight is probably not so bad. Statistically speaking, it is more threatening to one’s longevity to be too thin than to be a little overweight.

DrRich does not have the solution to the obesity problem we have in America. If there is a solution, DrRich thinks it is likely to be some combination of science (since there is a large genetic component to true obesity), encouraging a sense of personal responsibility for living one’s own life, and yes, even public policy. But he finds the kind of linear thinking displayed in today’s Times – relying on assumption piled upon assumption, ignoring the obvious human and economic reactions that will knock those assumptions off their straight-line path – to be silly. And if they actually encourage public policy experts to behave in such a manner, they can be dangerous.