It is a good thing that DrRich is not the only cardiac electrophysiologist writing in the medical blogosphere. If he were, the public would no doubt believe that all electrophysiologists are arrogant, self-important, sarcastic blowhards who insist on expressing themselves in the third person. Fortunately, that DrRich is uniquely afflicted in this manner, and that at least two out of three electrologist appear to be not only brilliant but also reasonably normal people, is nicely demonstrated by the offerings of Dr. Wes and Dr. John M on their respective blogs.
Both of these relatively socially acceptable electrophysiologist bloggers have seen fit to comment on the Million Hearts Initiative, recently introduced with great fanfare in the pages of the New England Journal of Medicine by Drs. Thomas R. Frieden, M.D., M.P.H., and Donald M. Berwick, M.D., M.P.P., on behalf of the United States Department of Health and Human Services. The Million Hearts Initiative aims to prevent a million heart attacks and strokes over the next five years.
The critiques of both Dr. Wes and Dr. John M regarding the Million Hearts Initiative are insightful and well-written, and both offer cogent analyses of the shortcomings of this program. DrRich strongly recommends both for your perusal.
Dr. John M is largely sympathetic with the aims of the Million Hearts Initiative, but finds that at least some of the methods proposed by DHHS to prevent all those heart attacks and strokes are unlikely to do much good. And more importantly, Dr. John notes, the MHI manifesto entirely ignores one of the most important (possibly THE most important) measures to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, namely, exercise. Dr. John M is an avid cyclist, and has personal experience with the benefits of exercise. How, he asks incredulously, can you design a major program to prevent cardiovascular events and leave out exercise?
DrRich (who, being a runner for going on five decades, has himself invested much blood, sweat and tears to the proposition that exercise is good for you), also finds this ommission to be quite remarkable. But as usual, DrRich has developed a theory to explain it. Both Dr. Frieden and Dr. Berwick, judging from the string of letters trailing behind their names, are public health experts. Public health experts are known for taking snippets of data from typically flawed clinical trials and, stringing together a chain of mathematical assumptions and conjectures longer than their post-nominal decorations, calculating how many people will be saved (or killed) if this or that public policy is initiated (or withheld). Obviously, for the Million Hearts Initiative, Frieden and Berwick needed to assemble a package of policy interventions whose calculations, when properly jiggered, show that there will be precisely one million beneficiaries. By including exercise in their program (and in their calculations), they would clearly have boosted the results to some awkward and difficult-to-promote value. The “One-Point-Eight Million Hearts Initiative” would just not have had the proper flair.
Like the President says, John, it’s just math.
Dr. Wes is somewhat less charitable toward these eminent public health experts than is Dr. John. John, while criticizing their methods, attributes high motives to them. Wes, on the other hand, is quite cynical about their motives. (In fact, if it were not for his total lack of blustery, third-person-y verbosity, Dr. Wes’ post might well have been written by DrRich.)
Wes suggests that the Million Hearts Initiative is the Feds’ way of distracting the public from noticing that they are doing everything they possibly can to restrict patients’ access to cardiologists, and to restrict spending on cardiovascular medicine.
It is, in fact, striking (at least to cardiologists like DrRich, Dr. Wes, and Dr. John) that this major policy initiative to save a million hearts has no place in it for cardiologists. Cardiologists are never mentioned in the manifesto itself, except obliquely to indicate that their services will not be required. Cardiologists, of course, take care of patients who have already developed significant heart disease. So what the public health experts are telling us is that they are only interested in stopping heart attacks and strokes in people who are apparently disease-free. There’s nothing wrong with that, of course. Preventive medicine is extremely important in cardiovascular disease.
But still. It is at least arguable that the quickest way to prevent a million heart attacks and strokes would be to target those patients who have the highest risk for these events, namely, people with known cardiovascular disease. Cardiologists dedicate their lives to preventing catastrophic events in these high-risk patients – and a tremendous amount of clinical evidence suggests they’re pretty good at it. While the only thing we ever hear these days about stents and implantable defibrillators is that cardiologists over-use them (and so the DOJ is launching criminal investigations to intimidate doctors into using them less frequently), when these kinds of technologies are used appropriately – as they most often are – they are proven to save lives.
But this is most decidedly not what the government’s public health experts are trying to prove. They want nothing to do with actual doctors practicing medicine in the trenches, fighting to save patients with active disease. Rather, they are out to show that the healthcare system can do just fine without all those fancy specialists and all their expensive procedures. They are aiming to advance the Progressives’ long-term agenda of showing that all the really important stuff in healthcare can be accomplished with much cheaper public health initiatives.
As DrRich has pointed out, it is our duty as citizens to maintain our wellness, and the the Million Hearts Initiative is simply the latest initiative by which the Central Authority will help us fulfill that duty. Those who by their own shortcomings develop heart disease or stroke, despite all the wonderful preventive help they receive through programs such as this, have manifestly failed to fulfill their duty to society and will just have to get by the best way they can. And doctors such as cardiologists, who made the mistake of choosing careers dedicated to caring for such slackers, should not expect to be taken seriously, or overly respected, by the public health experts who are doing the really important work, or by any policy makers for that matter.
None of us cardiologists, nor our patients, should be surprised at being excluded from the Million Hearts Initiative. And won’t we feel bad when the results are in, and it turns out that millions of hearts can indeed be saved without any participation by the heart specialists?
So: Can the public health experts really save a million hearts with the specific steps they say they will take? Examining the strategy which Drs. Frieden and Berwick have laid out in their document, it certainly does not appear so. But, as it turns out, that result will be amenable to “tailoring,” and so the actual values they obtain in their results will be of little consequence.
The Million Hearts Initiative proposes to save a million hearts by doing the following:
A) Make “providers” report more regularly on how well they make little chits on checklists. (These are pretty much the same checklists the providers are already using; it’s the improved reporting standards that will save lives.)
B) Use electronic medical records to track and improve the behavior of providers and patients. (It is not clear exactly how this is supposed to work, though it is easy to imagine many rather spooky initiatives that might be taken, given the creation of a centralized database tracking, among many other intimate details, everybody’s long-term behavioral habits.)
C) Assemble groups of providers into “care teams,” which will somehow employ tag-team counseling efforts to get patients to improve their lifestyles. (Revealingly, it is this gang-nagging, and not novel life-saving technologies, which the public health experts refer to in their document as “clinical innovation.”)
D) Reduce smoking and second-hand smoke. (Fine, but this is merely one of the behavioral changes about which oppressed patients will be mercilessly “counseled” – see Item C.)
E) Get trans-fats out of the food supply. (DrRich has no objection here either, except to note that it was the same public health experts who, 40 years ago, demanded that trans fats be introduced into the food supply in order to crowd out saturated fats. This is one example of why, when you’re a Progressive, history has always begun just 10 minutes ago.)
And F) Institute a population-wide salt restriction. (This amounts to yet another huge experiment to be perpetrated on the population at large. With luck, after 10 or 20 years this experiment may finally reveal who’s right – the experts who say that a general, population-wide sodium restriction will reduce net mortality, or the experts who say such a sodium restriction will increase mortality. Right now there’s plenty of data to argue for either outcome.)
Will doing these things really save a million hearts? Not in real life. All these things, taken together, don’t amount to very much in terms of actually accomplishing anything useful. But in the final analysis, the public health experts will have a decided advantage. It is plain that, while proving that hearts are actually “saved” by such measures will in fact be impossible, it will be equally impossible to disprove it. This situation is entirely analogous to the one in which the Administration insisted that President Obama’s stimulus package “saved” eight million jobs – since there is no way to prove or disprove that any jobs (or hearts) would have been lost had you done the other thing, any old claim is just as good as the next. In such situations, the faction which gets to analyze the final data (in this case, those selfsame public health experts) can manipulate the statistical evidence any way they must to “prove” what they aim to prove.
Heck, they probably have their final report written up already.
Readers are advised to forget about saving a million hearts. Instead, save only one. Don’t smoke. Get plenty of exercise. And don’t eat so damned much. And should you develop heart disease despite your best efforts (which happens all too frequently despite what you’ve been told), pray that you can still find a cardiologist who has not been intimidated into withholding those expensive, modern medical therapies that really have been proven to save hearts, and lives.